Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexa Grasso vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-5-1Record16-10-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'5"Height5'3"
66"Reach 64"
125 lbsWeight116 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Alexa Grasso is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Karolina Kowalkiewicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Alexa GrassoNow 1715
If they win+12→ 1727
If they lose-20→ 1695
Karolina KowalkiewiczNow 1631
If they win+15→ 1646
If they lose-9→ 1622

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.11
Sig. strikes / min
5.54
41%
Strike accuracy
43%
3.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.51
58%
Strike defense
58%
0.41
Takedown avg.
0.31
35%
Takedown accuracy
23%
55%
Takedown defense
75%
0.61
Submission avg.
0.19

Trajectory

Alexa GrassoKarolina Kowalkiewicz
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (29%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
2 (12%)
Submission
3 (19%)
10 (59%)
Decision
12 (75%)

Combat Edge model read

Alexa Grasso82%
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 18%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Alexa Grasso a 82% favorite over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Alexa Grasso holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1631, a 84-point edge.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Alexa Grasso finishes 41% of wins inside the distance, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25%.

Alexa Grasso carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.