Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Alexa Grasso

Jun 9, 2019 · ESPN+

DateJun 9, 2019

DivisionWomen's Strawweight

StatusScheduled

VenueUnited Center

BroadcastESPN+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Sunday, June 9, 2019 — watch on ESPN+.

US East (ET): Sun 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sun 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Mon 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Mon 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Mon 11:00 AM
Your time

Karolina Kowalkiewicz16-10-0Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Alexa GrassoAlexa Grasso18-5-1

Karolina Kowalkiewicz16-10-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

Time5:00

16-10-0Record18-5-1

40Age33

5'3"Height5'5"

64"Reach66"

116 lbsWeight125 lbs

Women's StrawweightWeight ClassWomen's Strawweight

Alexa Grasso18-5-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Alexa Grasso owns a 101-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Alexa Grasso across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Karolina KowalkiewiczAlexa Grasso

Recent form

Karolina KowalkiewiczL L L W W · -15 Elo last 5

LLLWW

Alexa GrassoW W L L D · +15 Elo last 5

WWLLD

Elo edge

Karolina Kowalkiewicz1631-15 last move

Alexa Grasso1732+18 last move

Why they are ranked here

Karolina Kowalkiewicz#38 of 95 active Women Strawweight fighters · 1631 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Felice Herrig (rated 1573 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jessica Penne (rated 1575 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -15 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #37 Angela Hill, 1 ahead of #39 Saori Oshima.

Alexa Grasso#9 of 75 active Women Flyweight fighters · 1732 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Valentina Shevchenko (rated 1832 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Natália Silva (rated 1715 at the time): -16.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 2 losses, +15 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #8 Taila Santos, 10 ahead of #10 Maycee Barber.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Karolina KowalkiewiczNow 1631 · #38 Women Strawweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1646

Loses by decision-9→ 1622

Alexa GrassoNow 1732 · #9 Women Flyweight

Wins by decision+11→ 1743

Loses by decision-21→ 1711

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsAlexa Grasso

Takedown accuracy

23%vs6%

Submission average

0.19vs0.67

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

5.51vs3.71

Takedown defense

75%vs55%

Finishing profile

Karolina Kowalkiewiczdecision leads 75% of wins

Alexa Grassodecision leads 61% of wins

Common opponents

Rose Namajunas Karolina Kowalkiewicz: win · Decision (Split) · Jul 30, 2016 Alexa Grasso: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Jan 24, 2026

Cláudia GadelhaKarolina Kowalkiewicz: loss · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Jun 3, 2017Alexa Grasso: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Jan 18, 2020

Randa Markos Karolina Kowalkiewicz: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Dec 19, 2015Alexa Grasso: win · Decision (Split) · Aug 5, 2017

Tale of the tape

Karolina KowalkiewiczAlexa Grasso

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.54Sig. strikes landed per min4.11

UFC strawweight average : 3.99

43Sig. strike accuracy41

UFC strawweight average : 45%

5.51Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.71

UFC strawweight average : 4.06

58Sig. strike defense59

UFC strawweight average : 54%

0.31Takedown average0.40

UFC strawweight average : 1.39

23Takedown accuracy6

UFC strawweight average : 32%

75Takedown defense55

UFC strawweight average : 59%

0.19Submission average0.67

UFC strawweight average : 0.42

1Wins by knockout5

3Wins by submission2

12Wins by decision11

2Losses by knockout0

2Losses by submission1

6Losses by decision4

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Alexa Grasso is a scheduled Women's Strawweight fight on UFC 238 : CEJUDO VS MORAES. Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters with a 16-10-0 record and Alexa Grasso enters with a 18-5-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.