Alexander Hernandez vs Diego Ferreira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record20-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
72"Reach74"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Diego Ferreira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Alexander Hernandez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1730
If they lose-11→ 1706
If they win+11→ 1748
If they lose-13→ 1724
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezDiego Ferreira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diego Ferreira62%
Alexander Hernandez 38%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Diego Ferreira a 62% favorite over Alexander Hernandez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Diego Ferreira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1717, a 20-point edge.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Diego Ferreira 60%.
Alexander Hernandez and Diego Ferreira share 1 common opponent: Billy Quarantillo.
Diego Ferreira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.