Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record32-18-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72"Reach70"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1742
If they lose-13→ 1718
If they win+13→ 1711
If they lose-11→ 1687
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez57%
Rafael dos Anjos 43%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 57% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1731 to 1698, a 33-point edge.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.