Rafael dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez

DateOct 3, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueDelta Center

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 3, 2026.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 12:00 PM
Your time

Rafael dos Anjos32-17-0Rafael dos Anjos vs Alexander HernandezAlexander HernandezThe Great Ape |18-9-0

Rafael dos Anjos32-17-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

32-17-0Record18-9-0

41Age33

5'8"Height5'9"

70"Reach72"

155 lbsWeight148 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Alexander HernandezThe Great Ape18-9-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Alexander Hernandez owns a 3-point Elo edge (good). Rafael dos Anjos shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Rafael dos Anjos and Alexander Hernandez across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Rafael dos AnjosAlexander Hernandez

Recent form

Rafael dos AnjosL L L W L · -40 Elo last 5

LLLWL

Alexander HernandezL W W W W · +62 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Rafael dos Anjos1714-16 last move

Alexander Hernandez1717-12 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

31%Rafael dos Anjos69%Alexander Hernandez

Model favoriteAlexander Hernandez

Elo baseline50% for Alexander Hernandez

Matchup adjustment+19 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Alexander HernandezStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Alexander Hernandez leads the full model at 70%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 19 points.

Current Elo ratings1714 · 1717Alexander Hernandez leads by 3 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1737 · 1705Rafael dos Anjos faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth39 · 26 fightsRafael dos Anjos has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesRafael dos Anjos 4 · 0 Alexander HernandezStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Rafael dos Anjos.

Stat advantages

Rafael dos AnjosvsAlexander Hernandez

Takedown accuracy

24%vs11%

Submission average

0.57vs0.08

Takedown average

1.95vs1.05

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

3.23vs4.45

Finishing profile

Rafael dos Anjosdecision leads 50% of wins

Alexander HernandezKO/TKO leads 44% of wins

Common opponents

Renato Moicano Rafael dos Anjos: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Mar 5, 2022 Alexander Hernandez: loss · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Feb 12, 2022

Islam MakhachevRafael dos Anjos: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Oct 30, 2021Alexander Hernandez: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Apr 18, 2020

Donald Cerrone Rafael dos Anjos: win · TKO (punches) · Dec 19, 2015Alexander Hernandez: loss · TKO (Head Kick and Punches) · Jan 19, 2019

Tale of the tape

Rafael dos AnjosAlexander Hernandez

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.48Sig. strikes landed per min4.23

UFC lightweight average : 3.84

47Sig. strike accuracy40

UFC lightweight average : 46%

3.23Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.45

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

60Sig. strike defense60

UFC lightweight average : 53%

1.95Takedown average1.05

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

24Takedown accuracy11

UFC lightweight average : 30%

55Takedown defense69

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0.57Submission average0.08

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

5Wins by knockout8

11Wins by submission2

16Wins by decision8

5Losses by knockout3

0Losses by submission1

12Losses by decision5

Rafael dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC 332 : SILVA VS WANG. Rafael dos Anjos enters with a 32-17-0 record and Alexander Hernandez enters with a 18-9-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.