Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Volkanovski61%
Movsar Evloev 39%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Volkanovski a 61% favorite over Movsar Evloev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Alexander Volkanovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1879 to 1841, a 38-point edge.
Alexander Volkanovski enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alexander Volkanovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Movsar Evloev 35%.
Alexander Volkanovski and Movsar Evloev share 1 common opponent: Diego Lopes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
29-4-0Record20-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'8"
71″Reach72"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Freestyle Fighting Gym· 1739 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Alexander Volkanovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Movsar Evloev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1890
If they lose-13→ 1866
If they win+18→ 1859
If they lose-14→ 1827
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1794 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1752 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander VolkanovskiMovsar Evloev
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (1)
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2026
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2025
WinDecision - Unanimous · 2023