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Combat Edge Intelligence

Alexey Shurkevich vs Kelvin Gastelum

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

19-6-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'9"
73"Reach71"
172 lbsWeight185 lbs
Storm Shlemenko Fight Team· 1679 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamFight Ready

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Alexey ShurkevichNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681
Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
3.65
Not available
Strike accuracy
42%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.52
Not available
Strike defense
57%
Not available
Takedown avg.
1.04
Not available
Takedown accuracy
13%
Not available
Takedown defense
60%
Not available
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Alexey ShurkevichKelvin Gastelum
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (63%)
KO/TKO
6 (30%)
1 (5%)
Submission
5 (25%)
6 (32%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Kelvin Gastelum64%
Alexey Shurkevich 36%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 64% favorite over Alexey Shurkevich in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Alexey Shurkevich's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1693), separated by just 0 points.

Alexey Shurkevich enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Alexey Shurkevich finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.

Alexey Shurkevich carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.