Ariane Carnelossi vs Ketlen Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record17-7-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'2"
61"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Inside Muay Thai· 1672 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamCarioca Academy· 1612 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+15→ 1641
If they lose-17→ 1609
If they win+17→ 1631
If they lose-15→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1597 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ariane CarnelossiKetlen Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ketlen Souza51%
Ariane Carnelossi 49%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Ketlen Souza a 51% favorite over Ariane Carnelossi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ariane Carnelossi's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1626 vs 1614), separated by just 12 points.
Ariane Carnelossi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ketlen Souza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ariane Carnelossi finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Ketlen Souza 65%.
Ariane Carnelossi and Ketlen Souza share 3 common opponents: Piera Rodriguez, Lupita Godinez and Angela Hill.
Ketlen Souza carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.