Ariane Carnelossi vs Ketlen Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record17-6-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'2"
61"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Inside Muay ThaiTeamCarioca Academy
What's at stake
Ketlen Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ariane Carnelossi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1642
If they lose-15→ 1610
If they win+15→ 1662
If they lose-17→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ariane CarnelossiKetlen Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ketlen Souza60%
Ariane Carnelossi 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Ketlen Souza a 60% favorite over Ariane Carnelossi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Ketlen Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1647 to 1625, a 22-point edge.
Ariane Carnelossi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ketlen Souza enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ariane Carnelossi finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Ketlen Souza 65%.
Ariane Carnelossi and Ketlen Souza share 2 common opponents: Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill.
Ketlen Souza carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.