Combat Edge Intelligence

Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

8-0-0Record10-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'2"Height5'11"
66"Reach72"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFortis MMA

What's at stake

Bia Mesquita is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Macy Chiasson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bia MesquitaNow 1690
If they win+19→ 1709
If they lose-29→ 1661
Macy ChiassonNow 1613
If they win+19→ 1632
If they lose-13→ 1600

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1536 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
3.21
57%
Strike accuracy
46%
1.27
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.76
71%
Strike defense
45%
3.57
Takedown avg.
1.87
50%
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
63%
3.57
Submission avg.
0.39

Trajectory

Bia MesquitaMacy Chiasson
155016001650170020252026

Win method breakdown

1 (14%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
6 (86%)
Submission
3 (30%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Bia Mesquita56%
Macy Chiasson 44%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Bia Mesquita a 56% favorite over Macy Chiasson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Bia Mesquita holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1690 to 1613, a 77-point edge.

Bia Mesquita enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Macy Chiasson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bia Mesquita finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Macy Chiasson 60%.

Macy Chiasson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.