Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson

Nov 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast64%Bia Mesquita36%Macy ChiassonFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMadison Square Garden

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Bia MesquitaBia |8-0-0Bia Mesquita vs Macy ChiassonMacy Chiasson10-6-0

Bia MesquitaBia8-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

8-0-0Record10-6-0

35Age35

5'2"Height5'11"

66"Reach72"

135 lbsWeight135 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Macy Chiasson10-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Bia Mesquita owns a 81-point Elo edge (good). Bia Mesquita shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Bia Mesquita and Macy Chiasson across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Bia MesquitaMacy Chiasson

Recent form

Bia MesquitaW W W W W · +114 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Macy ChiassonL L L W W · -5 Elo last 5

LLLWW

Elo edge

Bia Mesquita1694+25 last move

Macy Chiasson1613-14 last move

Why they are ranked here

Bia Mesquita#6 of 66 active Women Bantamweight fighters · 1694 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jorgina Ramos (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +114 Elo in total.
Next places: 13 points behind #5 Luana Santos, 8 ahead of #7 Michelle Montague.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1546 Elo over the last 8 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Macy Chiasson#25 of 66 active Women Bantamweight fighters · 1613 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Shanna Young (rated 1594 at the time): +23.
Costliest loss: Lost to Raquel Pennington (rated 1623 at the time): -31.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -5 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #24 Luana Carolina, 2 ahead of #26 Klaudia Syguła.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

64%Bia Mesquita36%Macy Chiasson

Model favoriteBia Mesquita

Elo baseline61% for Bia Mesquita

Matchup adjustment+3 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Bia MesquitaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Bia Mesquita leads the full model at 64%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 3 points.

Current Elo ratings1694 · 1613Bia Mesquita leads by 81 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1546 · 1635Macy Chiasson faced the stronger recent schedule (8 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth8 · 16 fightsMacy Chiasson has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesBia Mesquita 3 · 1 Macy ChiassonStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Bia Mesquita.

What's at stake

Bia MesquitaNow 1694 · #6 Women Bantamweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1713

Loses by decision-29→ 1665

Macy ChiassonNow 1613 · #25 Women Bantamweight

Wins by decision+20→ 1633

Loses by decision-12→ 1601

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Bia MesquitavsMacy Chiasson

Takedown accuracy

50%vs0%

Takedown defense

0%vs63%

Submission average

3.57vs0.39

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

1.27vs2.76

Finishing profile

Bia Mesquitasubmission leads 75% of wins

Macy Chiassondecision leads 40% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Bia MesquitaMacy Chiasson

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.52Sig. strikes landed per min3.21

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

57Sig. strike accuracy46

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

1.27Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.76

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

71Sig. strike defense45

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

3.57Takedown average1.87

UFC bantamweight average : 1.52

50Takedown accuracy0

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

0Takedown defense63

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

3.57Submission average0.39

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

1Wins by knockout3

6Wins by submission3

0Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision4

Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKIT. Bia Mesquita enters with a 8-0-0 record and Macy Chiasson enters with a 10-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.