Bogdan Grad vs Luke Riley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters → 
Luke Riley
Elo 1739 Good Tale of the tape
15-4-0 Record 13-0-0
Featherweight Division Featherweight
5'8" Height 5'9"
70" Reach 69"
145 lbs Weight 145 lbs
ETTL Bros. MMA Team Next Generation MMA Liverpool
What's at stake
Luke Riley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Bogdan Grad carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1696
If they lose-13→ 1664
If they win+13→ 1752
If they lose-19→ 1720
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bogdan Grad Luke Riley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Riley71%
Bogdan Grad29%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Riley a 71% favorite over Bogdan Grad in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Luke Riley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1739 to 1677, a 62-point edge.
Bogdan Grad enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luke Riley enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Bogdan Grad finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Luke Riley 69%.
Bogdan Grad and Luke Riley share 1 common opponent: Michael Aswell Jr..
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.