Bogdan Grad vs Luke Riley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record14-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
ETTL Bros. MMATeamNext Generation MMA Liverpool
What's at stake
Luke Riley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Bogdan Grad carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1711
If they lose-13→ 1679
If they win+13→ 1767
If they lose-19→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bogdan GradLuke Riley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Riley64%
Bogdan Grad 36%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Riley a 64% favorite over Bogdan Grad in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Luke Riley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1692, a 62-point edge.
Luke Riley enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Bogdan Grad finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Luke Riley 71%.
Bogdan Grad and Luke Riley share 1 common opponent: Michael Aswell Jr..
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.