Bryan Barberena vs Jake Ellenberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-12-0Record31-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
72"Reach39,5"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gym-OTeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Jake Ellenberger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Bryan Barberena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1640
If they lose-11→ 1616
If they win+11→ 1676
If they lose-13→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1691 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bryan BarberenaJake Ellenberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bryan Barberena54%
Jake Ellenberger 46%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Bryan Barberena a 54% favorite over Jake Ellenberger in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jake Ellenberger's way (45%).
Jake Ellenberger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1665 to 1627, a 38-point edge.
Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Bryan Barberena finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Jake Ellenberger 81%.
Bryan Barberena and Jake Ellenberger share 2 common opponents: Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.