Carla Esparza vs Tatiana Suarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record12-1-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'1"Height5'5"
63"Reach66"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team OyamaTeamMillennia MMA
What's at stake
Tatiana Suarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Carla Esparza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1678
If they lose-11→ 1646
If they win+11→ 1771
If they lose-21→ 1739
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaTatiana Suarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tatiana Suarez88%
Carla Esparza 12%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Tatiana Suarez a 88% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Tatiana Suarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1657, a 103-point edge.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tatiana Suarez enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Tatiana Suarez 67%.
Carla Esparza and Tatiana Suarez share 2 common opponents: Weili Zhang and Alexa Grasso.
Tatiana Suarez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.