Charles Oliveira vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
74"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Charles Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1819
If they lose-17→ 1795
If they win+17→ 1676
If they lose-7→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1766 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Charles Oliveira92%
Tony Ferguson 8%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Charles Oliveira a 92% favorite over Tony Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Charles Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1659, a 153-point edge.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Charles Oliveira and Tony Ferguson share 3 common opponents: Michael Chandler, Beneil Dariush and Justin Gaethje.
Tony Ferguson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.