Diego Ferreira vs Kyle Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record17-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
74"Reach 71"
155 lbsWeight149 lbs
Fortis MMATeamHouse of Champions MMA
What's at stake
Diego Ferreira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kyle Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1747
If they lose-14→ 1723
If they win+14→ 1683
If they lose-10→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diego FerreiraKyle Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diego Ferreira70%
Kyle Nelson 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Diego Ferreira a 70% favorite over Kyle Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Diego Ferreira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1669, a 68-point edge.
Diego Ferreira finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Nelson 59%.
Diego Ferreira and Kyle Nelson share 1 common opponent: Billy Quarantillo.
Diego Ferreira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.