Dustin Stoltzfus vs Kelvin Gastelum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-8-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height5'9"
75"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Frankers Fight TeamTeamFight Ready
What's at stake
Kelvin Gastelum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Dustin Stoltzfus carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1673
If they lose-11→ 1649
If they win+11→ 1704
If they lose-13→ 1680
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin StoltzfusKelvin Gastelum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Stoltzfus62%
Kelvin Gastelum 38%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Stoltzfus a 62% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kelvin Gastelum's way (45%).
Kelvin Gastelum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1660, a 33-point edge.
Dustin Stoltzfus finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.
Dustin Stoltzfus carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.