Israel Adesanya vs Kelvin Gastelum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-6-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height5'9"
80"Reach71"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
City KickboxingTeamFight Ready
What's at stake
Israel Adesanya is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1771
If they lose-14→ 1747
If they win+14→ 1707
If they lose-10→ 1683
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1743 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Israel AdesanyaKelvin Gastelum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Israel Adesanya60%
Kelvin Gastelum 40%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Israel Adesanya a 60% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Israel Adesanya holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1761 to 1693, a 68-point edge.
Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Israel Adesanya finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.
Israel Adesanya and Kelvin Gastelum share 3 common opponents: Joe Pyfer, Jared Cannonier and Robert Whittaker.
Israel Adesanya carries a 9-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.