Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record30-1-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
77"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Yaroslav Amosov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Joel Alvarez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1721
If they lose-10→ 1689
If they win+10→ 1838
If they lose-22→ 1806
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1705 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezYaroslav Amosov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yaroslav Amosov75%
Joel Alvarez 25%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Yaroslav Amosov a 75% favorite over Joel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Yaroslav Amosov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1828 to 1699, a 129-point edge.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Yaroslav Amosov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Yaroslav Amosov 73%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.