Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Yaroslav Amosov69%
Joel Alvarez 31%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Yaroslav Amosov a 69% favorite over Joel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Yaroslav Amosov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1831 to 1732, a 99-point edge.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Yaroslav Amosov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Joel Alvarez finishes 96% of wins inside the distance, Yaroslav Amosov 73%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
23-5-0Record30-1-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
77"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Yaroslav Amosov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Joel Alvarez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1752
If they lose-12→ 1720
If they win+12→ 1843
If they lose-20→ 1811
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1707 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Joel AlvarezYaroslav Amosov