Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-5-0Record24-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
70"Reach 73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training CenterTeamNext Generation UK
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Paddy Pimblett carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1878
If they lose-15→ 1854
If they win+15→ 1810
If they lose-9→ 1786
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1808 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1689 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin GaethjePaddy Pimblett
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Gaethje60%
Paddy Pimblett 40%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 60% favorite over Paddy Pimblett in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1795, a 74-point edge.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Justin Gaethje finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Paddy Pimblett 75%.
Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett share 2 common opponents: Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson.
Paddy Pimblett carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.