Combat Edge Intelligence

Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Combat Edge model read

Justin Gaethje70%
Paddy Pimblett30%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Gaethje a 70% favorite over Paddy Pimblett in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1780, a 89-point edge.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Justin Gaethje finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Paddy Pimblett 74%.

Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett share 2 common opponents: Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson.

Paddy Pimblett carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Tale of the tape

28-5-0 Record 23-4-0
Lightweight Division Lightweight
5'11" Height 5'10"
70" Reach 73"
155 lbs Weight 155 lbs
Genesis Training Center Team Next Generation UK

Tracked stat edges

6.48
Sig. strikes / min
5.49
59%
Strike accuracy
53%
7.05
Strikes absorbed / min Lower is better
3.89
51%
Strike defense
43%
0.33
Takedown avg.
0.69
40%
Takedown accuracy
21%
74%
Takedown defense
44%
0
Submission avg.
1.20

Trajectory

Justin Gaethje Paddy Pimblett
1750 1800 1850 2024 2025 2026

Win method breakdown

21 (75%)
KO/TKO
7 (30%)
1 (4%)
Submission
10 (43%)
6 (21%)
Decision
6 (26%)

Common opponents (2)

Win Decision (Unanimous) · 2021
Michael Chandler
Win TKO · 2025
Win TKO · 2020
Tony Ferguson
Win Decision - Unanimous · 2023