Mackenzie Dern vs Tatiana Suarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record12-1-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'5"
63"Reach66"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
What's at stake
Tatiana Suarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Mackenzie Dern carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1752
If they lose-15→ 1720
If they win+15→ 1775
If they lose-17→ 1743
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mackenzie DernTatiana Suarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mackenzie Dern71%
Tatiana Suarez 29%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Mackenzie Dern a 71% favorite over Tatiana Suarez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tatiana Suarez's way (46%).
Tatiana Suarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1735, a 25-point edge.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Tatiana Suarez enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Mackenzie Dern finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Tatiana Suarez 67%.
Mackenzie Dern and Tatiana Suarez share 3 common opponents: Lupita Godinez, Amanda Lemos and Jéssica Andrade.
Tatiana Suarez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.