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Combat Edge Intelligence

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs Rafael Tobias

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

9-1-0Record14-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
75"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
KHK MMA Team· 1678 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamChute Boxe Monstro

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Magomed GadzhiyasulovNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Rafael TobiasNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.30
Sig. strikes / min
2.77
51%
Strike accuracy
36%
1.37
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.81
67%
Strike defense
35%
5.50
Takedown avg.
2.40
92%
Takedown accuracy
22%
57%
Takedown defense
100%
0
Submission avg.
1.60

Trajectory

Magomed GadzhiyasulovRafael Tobias
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (56%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
1 (11%)
Submission
6 (43%)
3 (33%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Tobias63%
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Tobias a 63% favorite over Magomed Gadzhiyasulov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Magomed Gadzhiyasulov's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1657), separated by just 0 points.

Rafael Tobias enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.