Manel Kape vs Matheus Nicolau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-7-0Record19-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
68"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
AKA ThailandTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Manel Kape is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Matheus Nicolau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1762
If they lose-20→ 1730
If they win+20→ 1683
If they lose-12→ 1651
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1698 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Manel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Manel Kape90%
Matheus Nicolau 10%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Manel Kape a 90% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Manel Kape holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1750 to 1663, a 87-point edge.
Manel Kape enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Manel Kape finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.
Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau share 3 common opponents: Brandon Royval, Asu Almabayev and David Dvořák.
Manel Kape carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.