Marwan Rahiki vs Tommy McMillen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record12-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72"Reach74"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
Tommy McMillen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Marwan Rahiki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1706
If they lose-14→ 1674
If they win+14→ 1745
If they lose-18→ 1713
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1551 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marwan RahikiTommy McMillen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tommy McMillen60%
Marwan Rahiki 40%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Tommy McMillen a 60% favorite over Marwan Rahiki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Tommy McMillen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1731 to 1688, a 43-point edge.
Tommy McMillen enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Marwan Rahiki finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Tommy McMillen 83%.
Tommy McMillen carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.