Combat Edge Model · Full card

RIZIN Landmark 16 Nagasaki: Horie vs Usami predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on RIZIN Landmark 16 Nagasaki: Horie vs Usami (October 3, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

Join the discussion Event overview

13Total bouts

13Frozen forecasts

5Close matchups

3Model / Elo splits

3Strong model leans

LockedFight card started

Card intelligence

Find the fights that matter

Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

Showing all 13 matchups.

Main card

Main card predictions

9 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

lightweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Yoshinori Horie16-6-0

Sho Patrick Usami9-6-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Yoshinori Horie won

69%Yoshinori Horie31%Sho Patrick Usami

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 61% / 39%

featherweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Viktor Kolesnik27-6-1

Koyomi Matsushima15-9-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Viktor Kolesnik won

81%Viktor Kolesnik19%Koyomi Matsushima

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 67% / 33%

featherweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Ryan Cafaro15-7-0

Hyuma Yasui5-1-0

Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel hit · Hyuma Yasui won

46%Ryan Cafaro55%Hyuma Yasui

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 57% / 43%

atomweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Keito Oyama11-8-0

Noeru Narita4-3-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Keito Oyama won

33%Keito Oyama67%Noeru Narita

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 46% / 54%

flyweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Kyohei Takagi7-1-0

Masatoshi Ueda22-14-3

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Kyohei Takagi won

75%Kyohei Takagi25%Masatoshi Ueda

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 65% / 35%

bantamweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Ryusei Ashizawa2-5-0

Seiya Inoue2-1-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Seiya Inoue won

46%Ryusei Ashizawa54%Seiya Inoue

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 44% / 56%

heavyweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Hidetaka Arato12-4-0

Ken Hasegawa18-7-1

Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel hit · Hidetaka Arato won

50.4%Hidetaka Arato49.6%Ken Hasegawa

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 49.6% / 50.4%

bantamweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Alan Yamaniha23-11-4

Seigo Yamamoto7-16-1

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Alan Yamaniha won

58%Alan Yamaniha42%Seigo Yamamoto

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 73% / 27%

flyweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Kohei Sugiyama17-10-0

Kaito Oda8-4-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Kohei Sugiyama won

28%Kohei Sugiyama72%Kaito Oda

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 46% / 54%

Prelims

Prelims predictions

4 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

lightweightv0.7-2026-08-28

Ryota Oki7-5-0

Daisuke Okumiya9-6-1

Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Ryota Oki won

58%Ryota Oki42%Daisuke Okumiya

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 42% / 58%

Heavyweight Kickboxingv0.7-2026-08-28

Kotaro Mori0-0-0

Yuki0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel hit · Kotaro Mori won

50.1%Kotaro Mori49.9%Yuki

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Flyweight Kickboxingv0.7-2026-08-28

Ryusei Imamura0-0-0

Reon Uemura0-0-0

Model lean50/50 baselineModel hit · Ryusei Imamura won

55%Ryusei Imamura45%Reon Uemura

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%

Featherweight Kickboxingv0.7-2026-08-28

Kakeru Tsuda0-0-0

Ayuto0-0-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineModel hit · Ayuto won

49.3%Kakeru Tsuda50.7%Ayuto

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50% / 50%