Alexis Nicolas vs Ilyasse Drabo

DateSep 25, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueAdidas Arena

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, September 25, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 3:00 AM
Your time

Alexis NicolasBarboza |1-0-0Alexis Nicolas vs Ilyasse DraboIlyasse Drabo1-1-0

Alexis NicolasBarboza1-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

1-0-0Record1-1-0

28AgeTBD

6'0"HeightTBD

72"Reach-

171 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Ilyasse Drabo1-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Alexis Nicolas owns a 27-point Elo edge (average). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Alexis Nicolas and Ilyasse Drabo across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Alexis NicolasIlyasse Drabo

Recent form

Alexis NicolasW · +29 Elo last 1

Ilyasse DraboW L · +2 Elo last 2

Elo edge

Alexis Nicolas1529+29 last move

Ilyasse Drabo1502+31 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

49%Alexis Nicolas51%Ilyasse Drabo

Model favoriteIlyasse Drabo

Elo baseline46% for Ilyasse Drabo

Matchup adjustment+5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Ilyasse DraboStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Ilyasse Drabo is 51%, after Elo alone favored Alexis Nicolas at 54%.

Current Elo ratings1529 · 1502Alexis Nicolas leads by 27 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1500 · 1500Equal pre-fight opponent Elo across 1 and 2 sampled fights.

Elo record depth1 · 2 fightsIlyasse Drabo has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Alexis NicolasvsIlyasse Drabo

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Alexis NicolasKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Ilyasse DraboKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Alexis NicolasIlyasse Drabo

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.67

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.33

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 32%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

1Wins by knockout1

0Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision0

Alexis Nicolas vs Ilyasse Drabo is a scheduled Welterweight fight on ARES FC 43 : O'CONNOR VS DIATTA. Alexis Nicolas enters with a 1-0-0 record and Ilyasse Drabo enters with a 1-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.