Akhmed Amaev vs Luke Shanks

DateSep 25, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueAdidas Arena

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, September 25, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 3:00 AM
Your time

Akhmed AmaevThe Legend |4-0-0Akhmed Amaev vs Luke ShanksLuke ShanksThe Apocalypse |10-6-0

Akhmed AmaevThe Legend4-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

4-0-0Record10-6-0

23Age31

5'10"Height5'5"

-Reach68"

135 lbsWeight130 lbs

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

Luke ShanksThe Apocalypse10-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Akhmed Amaev owns a 51-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Akhmed Amaev and Luke Shanks across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Akhmed AmaevLuke Shanks

Recent form

Akhmed AmaevW W W W W · +122 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Luke ShanksL L L W W · -26 Elo last 5

LLLWW

Elo edge

Akhmed Amaev1622+21 last move

Luke Shanks1571-19 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

63%Akhmed Amaev37%Luke Shanks

Model favoriteAkhmed Amaev

Elo baseline57% for Akhmed Amaev

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Akhmed AmaevStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Akhmed Amaev leads the full model at 63%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1622 · 1571Akhmed Amaev leads by 51 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1500 · 1547Luke Shanks faced the stronger recent schedule (5 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth5 · 16 fightsLuke Shanks has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Akhmed AmaevvsLuke Shanks

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Akhmed AmaevKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Luke Shankssubmission leads 40% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Akhmed AmaevLuke Shanks

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.76

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.51

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

2Wins by knockout2

2Wins by submission4

0Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision3

Akhmed Amaev vs Luke Shanks is a scheduled Flyweight fight on ARES FC 43 : O'CONNOR VS DIATTA. Akhmed Amaev enters with a 4-0-0 record and Luke Shanks enters with a 10-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.