BJ Penn vs Jon Fitch

Feb 26, 2011 · ESPN+

DateFeb 26, 2011

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueQudos Bank Arena

BroadcastESPN+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, February 26, 2011 — watch on ESPN+.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

BJ PennThe Prodigy |16-14-2BJ Penn vs Jon FitchJon Fitch32-8-2

BJ PennThe Prodigy16-14-2

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

Time00:05:00

16-14-2Record32-8-2

47Age48

5'9"Height6'0"

70"ReachTBD

145 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Jon Fitch32-8-2

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jon Fitch owns a 126-point Elo edge (good). Jon Fitch shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare BJ Penn and Jon Fitch across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

BJ PennJon Fitch

Recent form

BJ PennL L L L L · -65 Elo last 5

LLLLL

Jon FitchL D W W W · +23 Elo last 5

LDWWW

Elo edge

BJ Penn1615-12 last move

Jon Fitch1741-15 last move

Why they are ranked here

BJ PennNot on the active ladder · 1615 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Matt Hughes (rated 1849 at the time): +30.
Costliest loss: Lost to Frankie Edgar (rated 1673 at the time): -17.
Last 5 fights: 0 wins, 5 losses, -65 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1525, not 1615: 90 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Jon FitchNot on the active ladder · 1741 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jake Shields (rated 1773 at the time): +14.
Costliest loss: Lost to Rousimar Palhares (rated 1628 at the time): -18.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 1 loss, +23 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1651, not 1741: 90 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

BJ PennNow 1615

Wins by decision+16→ 1631

Loses by decision-8→ 1607

Jon FitchNow 1741

Wins by decision+8→ 1749

Loses by decision-16→ 1725

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

The simulator is part of Combat Edge Premium, with zero ads, 30 Ask Stats questions a month and CSV exports.

Go Premium to run it

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

BJ PennvsJon Fitch

Takedown average

1.19vs3.64

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

3.20vs1.75

Submission average

0.51vs0.88

Takedown defense

75%vs56%

Finishing profile

BJ PennKO/TKO leads 44% of wins

Jon Fitchdecision leads 63% of wins

Common opponents

Rory MacDonald BJ Penn: loss · Decision · Dec 8, 2012Jon Fitch: draw · Decision · Apr 27, 2019

Georges St-PierreBJ Penn: loss · Corner Stoppage · Jan 31, 2009Jon Fitch: loss · Decision · Aug 9, 2008

Diego Sanchez BJ Penn: win · Doctor Stoppage · Dec 12, 2009Jon Fitch: win · Decision · Sep 22, 2007

Tale of the tape

BJ PennJon Fitch

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.76Sig. strikes landed per min2.64

UFC featherweight average : 3.93

49Sig. strike accuracy51

UFC featherweight average : 46%

3.20Sig. strikes absorbed per min1.75

UFC featherweight average : 3.88

57Sig. strike defense54

UFC featherweight average : 54%

1.19Takedown average3.64

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

55Takedown accuracy55

UFC featherweight average : 29%

75Takedown defense56

UFC featherweight average : 55%

0.51Submission average0.88

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

7Wins by knockout7

6Wins by submission5

3Wins by decision20

4Losses by knockout2

1Losses by submission4

9Losses by decision2

BJ Penn vs Jon Fitch is a scheduled Welterweight fight on UFC 127 : PENN VS FITCH. BJ Penn enters with a 16-14-2 record and Jon Fitch enters with a 32-8-2 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.