Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon

Oct 24, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast40%Kody Steele60%Noah GugnonFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 24, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueEtihad Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 2:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 7:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 8:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Kody Steele8-1-0Kody Steele vs Noah GugnonNoah GugnonGuns |10-2-0

Kody Steele8-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

8-1-0Record10-2-0

31Age26

5'9"Height5'10"

71"Reach68"

155 lbsWeight156 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Noah GugnonGuns10-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Noah Gugnon owns a 18-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Kody Steele and Noah Gugnon across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Kody SteeleNoah Gugnon

Recent form

Kody SteeleW L W W W · +65 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Noah GugnonW W W W W · +108 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Kody Steele1659+31 last move

Noah Gugnon1677+22 last move

Why they are ranked here

Kody Steele#143 of 434 active Lightweight fighters · 1659 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Dom Mar Fan (rated 1650 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Rongzhu (rated 1715 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +65 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #142 Kauê Fernandes, 0 ahead of #144 Kurt Holobaugh.

Noah Gugnon#107 of 434 active Lightweight fighters · 1677 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Nicolas Di Franco (rated 1562 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Mark Ewen (rated 1531 at the time): -35.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +108 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #106 Josiah Harrell, 1 ahead of #108 Elves Brener.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

40%Kody Steele60%Noah Gugnon

Model favoriteNoah Gugnon

Elo baseline53% for Noah Gugnon

Matchup adjustment+7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Noah GugnonStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Noah Gugnon leads the full model at 60%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 7 points.

Current Elo ratings1659 · 1677Noah Gugnon leads by 18 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1532 · 1536Noah Gugnon faced the stronger recent schedule (9 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth9 · 12 fightsNoah Gugnon has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesKody Steele 2 · 2 Noah GugnonStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Kody Steele.

What's at stake

Kody SteeleNow 1659 · #143 Lightweight

Wins by decision+25→ 1684

Loses by decision-23→ 1636

Noah GugnonNow 1677 · #107 Lightweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1692

Loses by decision-17→ 1660

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Kody SteelevsNoah Gugnon

Takedown average

1.07vs0

Takedown defense

100%vs0%

Submission average

0.53vs11.11

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

6.20vs4.44

Finishing profile

Kody SteeleKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Noah GugnonKO/TKO leads 60% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Kody SteeleNoah Gugnon

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.85Sig. strikes landed per min3.70

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

33Sig. strike accuracy45

UFC lightweight average : 46%

6.20Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.44

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

52Sig. strike defense68

UFC lightweight average : 53%

1.07Takedown average0

UFC lightweight average : 1.67

13Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

100Takedown defense0

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0.53Submission average11.11

UFC lightweight average : 0.55

4Wins by knockout6

2Wins by submission4

2Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision1

Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC 333 : VOLKANOVSKI VS EVLOEV. Kody Steele enters with a 8-1-0 record and Noah Gugnon enters with a 10-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.