Mac Stroud vs Sami Elmasry

Nov 6, 2026 · UFC FIGHT PASS

Combat Edge model forecast63%Mac Stroud37%Sami ElmasryFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 6, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCasino Du Lac Leamy

BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 6, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET): Fri 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Fri 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Mac Stroud1-0-0Mac Stroud vs Sami ElmasrySami Elmasry0-0-0

Mac Stroud1-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

1-0-0Record0-0-0

TBDAgeTBD

6'1"HeightTBD

TBDReach-

168 lbsWeight170 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Sami Elmasry0-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

The Elo matchup is close or still provisional. Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Mac Stroud and Sami Elmasry across their careers →

Recent form

Mac StroudW · +26 Elo last 1

Sami ElmasryNo counted pro MMA fights yet

No recent Elo history

Elo edge

Mac Stroud1526+26 last move

Sami ElmasryTBDTBD last move

Why they are ranked here

Mac StroudNot on the active ladder · 1526 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Colton Boxell (rated 1471 at the time): +26.
Inactivity: Placed on 1436, not 1526: 90 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.
Activity: Not on the active ladder: no rated fight in the last 24 months.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1471 Elo over the last 1 fight. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

63%Mac Stroud37%Sami Elmasry

Model favoriteMac Stroud

Elo baseline54% for Mac Stroud

Matchup adjustment+9 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Mac StroudStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Mac Stroud leads the full model at 63%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 10 points.

Current Elo ratingsNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Recent opponent qualityNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Elo record depthNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Mac StroudNow 1526

Wins by decision+22→ 1548

Loses by decision-26→ 1500

Sami ElmasryNow 1500

Wins by decision+26→ 1526

Loses by decision-22→ 1478

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Mac StroudvsSami Elmasry

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Mac StroudKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Sami ElmasryNo tracked pro wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Mac StroudSami Elmasry

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.84

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

1Wins by knockout0

0Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Mac Stroud vs Sami Elmasry is a scheduled Lightweight fight on SAMOURAI MMA 22 : BONIN VS AVELLAN. Mac Stroud enters with a 1-0-0 record and Sami Elmasry enters with a 0-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.