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ARES FC 45 : ZÉBO VS BAKI 2

Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur Chamsoudinov

Nov 20, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass
Combat Edge model forecast56%Jordan Zébo44%Baysangur ChamsoudinovFull forecast and your pick
DateNov 20, 2026
StatusScheduled
VenueAdidas Arena
BroadcastUFC Fight Pass
Start times & how to watch
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 20, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET)
Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT)
Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom
Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe
Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney)
Sat 5:00 AM
Jordan ZéboLe Fauve |11-1-0Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur ChamsoudinovBaysangur ChamsoudinovBaki |9-1-0
frJordan ZéboLe Fauve11-1-0Jordan Zébofr

Fight Overview

Round5
Time5:00
11-1-0Record9-1-0
26Age25
5'9"Height5'10"
71"Reach73"
173 lbsWeight170 lbs
Welterweight TITLE FIGHTWeight ClassWelterweight TITLE FIGHT
frBaysangur ChamsoudinovBaki9-1-0frBaysangur Chamsoudinov
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jordan Zébo owns a 27-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Jordan Zébo and Baysangur Chamsoudinov across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jordan ZéboBaysangur Chamsoudinov
160016501700202420252026

Recent form

Jordan ZéboW W W W W · +90 Elo last 5
WWWWW
Baysangur ChamsoudinovL W W W W · +52 Elo last 5
LWWWW

Elo edge

Jordan Zébo1692+13 last move
Baysangur Chamsoudinov1665-34 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jordan Zébo#68 of 287 active Middleweight fighters · 1692 Elo
Biggest gain
Beat Baysangur Chamsoudinov (rated 1698 at the time): +34.
Costliest loss
Lost to Cédric Doumbé (rated 1603 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights
5 wins, 0 losses, +90 Elo in total.
Next places
1 point behind #67 Torrez Finney, 1 ahead of #69 Carlos Petruzzella.
Baysangur Chamsoudinov#111 of 383 active Welterweight fighters · 1665 Elo
Biggest gain
Beat Soury Medhi (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss
Lost to Jordan Zébo (rated 1638 at the time): -34.
Last 5 fights
4 wins, 1 loss, +52 Elo in total.
Next places
0 points behind #110 Andreas Gustafsson, 0 ahead of #112 Ernesto Rodriguez.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04
56%Jordan Zébo44%Baysangur Chamsoudinov
Model favoriteJordan Zébo
Elo baseline54% for Jordan Zébo
Matchup adjustment+2 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Jordan Zébo leads the full model at 56%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 2 points.

Current Elo ratings1692 · 1665Jordan Zébo leads by 27 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1538 · 1540Baysangur Chamsoudinov faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth12 · 10 fightsJordan Zébo has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Jordan ZéboNow 1692 · #68 Middleweight
Wins by decision+15→ 1707
Loses by decision-17→ 1675
Baysangur ChamsoudinovNow 1665 · #111 Welterweight
Wins by decision+17→ 1682
Loses by decision-15→ 1650
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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jordan ZébovsBaysangur Chamsoudinov

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Jordan Zébodecision leads 64% of wins
Baysangur ChamsoudinovKO/TKO leads 56% of wins

Common opponents

Cédric DoumbéJordan Zébo: loss · KO (Punch) · Sep 30, 2023Baysangur Chamsoudinov: win · TKO (Toe Injury) · Mar 7, 2024
Mickael Marie SardiJordan Zébo: win · TKO (Head Kick) · May 11, 2023Baysangur Chamsoudinov: win · Decision (Unanimous) · May 20, 2022

Tale of the tape

Jordan ZéboBaysangur Chamsoudinov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available
UFC middleweight average : 3.93
Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available
UFC middleweight average : 48%
Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available
UFC middleweight average : 3.82
Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available
UFC middleweight average : 52%
Not availableTakedown averageNot available
UFC middleweight average : 1.62
Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available
UFC middleweight average : 29%
Not availableTakedown defenseNot available
UFC middleweight average : 59%
Not availableSubmission averageNot available
UFC middleweight average : 0.68
2Wins by knockout5
2Wins by submission0
7Wins by decision4
1Losses by knockout1
0Losses by submission0
0Losses by decision0

Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur Chamsoudinov is a scheduled Welterweight TITLE FIGHT fight on ARES FC 45 : ZÉBO VS BAKI 2. Jordan Zébo enters with a 11-1-0 record and Baysangur Chamsoudinov enters with a 9-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur Chamsoudinov quick answers

When is Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur Chamsoudinov?

Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur Chamsoudinov is listed for ARES FC 45 : ZÉBO VS BAKI 2 on Nov 20, 2026 at 1:00 PM EST.

What event is Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur Chamsoudinov on?

Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur Chamsoudinov is listed on ARES FC 45 : ZÉBO VS BAKI 2.

What are the records for Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur Chamsoudinov?

Jordan Zébo enters with a 11-1-0 record and Baysangur Chamsoudinov enters with a 9-1-0 record.

What division is Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur Chamsoudinov?

Jordan Zébo vs Baysangur Chamsoudinov is listed as a Welterweight TITLE FIGHT fight.

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