Arkaitz Ramos vs Jeferson Costa

Oct 24, 2026

Combat Edge model forecast45%Arkaitz Ramos55%Jeferson CostaFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 24, 2026

DivisionMiddleweight

StatusScheduled

VenueBuesa Arena

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026.

US East (ET): Sat 2:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 7:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 8:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Arkaitz Ramos8-5-0Arkaitz Ramos vs Jeferson CostaJeferson CostaSuper Choque |5-2-0

Arkaitz Ramos8-5-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

8-5-0Record5-2-0

TBDAgeTBD

TBDHeight5'9"

TBDReachTBD

TBDWeight154 lbs

MiddleweightWeight ClassMiddleweight

Jeferson CostaSuper Choque5-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jeferson Costa owns a 49-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Arkaitz Ramos and Jeferson Costa across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Arkaitz RamosJeferson Costa

Recent form

Arkaitz RamosL W L L W · -25 Elo last 5

LWLLW

Jeferson CostaL W L W W · -1 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Elo edge

Arkaitz Ramos1504-21 last move

Jeferson Costa1553-34 last move

Why they are ranked here

Arkaitz Ramos#5 of 6 active Unassigned fighters · 1504 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Guillermo Ogalla (rated 1500 at the time): +26.
Costliest loss: Lost to Delmar Silva (rated 1453 at the time): -38.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -25 Elo in total.
Next places: 16 points behind #4 Jonny Becerra, 64 ahead of #6 Paulo Santos.

Jeferson CostaNot on the active ladder · 1553 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Renato Ferreira (rated 1500 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Vanderlei Gonçalves (rated 1500 at the time): -37.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, -1 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1530, not 1553: 23 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

45%Arkaitz Ramos55%Jeferson Costa

Model favoriteJeferson Costa

Elo baseline57% for Jeferson Costa

Matchup adjustment-2 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jeferson CostaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Jeferson Costa leads the full model at 55%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 2 points.

Current Elo ratings1504 · 1553Jeferson Costa leads by 49 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1503 · 1500Arkaitz Ramos faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 7 sampled fights).

Elo record depth13 · 7 fightsArkaitz Ramos has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Arkaitz RamosNow 1504 · #5 Unassigned

Wins by decision+18→ 1522

Loses by decision-14→ 1490

Jeferson CostaNow 1553

Wins by decision+21→ 1574

Loses by decision-27→ 1526

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Arkaitz RamosvsJeferson Costa

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Arkaitz RamosWin method split is limited

Jeferson Costasubmission leads 60% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Arkaitz RamosJeferson Costa

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.68

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

0Wins by knockout2

0Wins by submission3

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision0

Arkaitz Ramos vs Jeferson Costa is a scheduled Middleweight fight on WOW 33 : GARCIA VS SANCHEZ. Arkaitz Ramos enters with a 8-5-0 record and Jeferson Costa enters with a 5-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.