Arman Tsarukyan vs Dillon Danis

Oct 23, 2026

Combat Edge model forecast90%Arman Tsarukyan10%Dillon DanisFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 23, 2026

DivisionMiddleweight Wrestling

StatusScheduled

VenueBleauLive Theater

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 23, 2026.

US East (ET): Fri 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 11:00 AM
Your time

Arman TsarukyanThe Batman / Ahalkalakets |24-3-0Arman Tsarukyan vs Dillon DanisDillon DanisEl Jefe |2-0-0

Arman TsarukyanThe Batman / Ahalkalakets24-3-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

24-3-0Record2-0-0

30Age33

5'7"Height6'0"

72"Reach72"

155 lbsWeight175 lbs

Middleweight WrestlingWeight ClassMiddleweight Wrestling

Dillon DanisEl Jefe2-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Arman Tsarukyan owns a 272-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Arman Tsarukyan and Dillon Danis across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Arman TsarukyanDillon Danis

Recent form

Arman TsarukyanW W W W W · +71 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Dillon DanisW W W · +76 Elo last 3

WWW

Elo edge

Arman Tsarukyan1848+11 last move

Dillon Danis1576+25 last move

Why they are ranked here

Arman Tsarukyan#3 of 430 active Lightweight fighters · 1848 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Beneil Dariush (rated 1787 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Mateusz Gamrot (rated 1814 at the time): -14.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +71 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #2 Usman Nurmagomedov, 18 ahead of #4 Ilia Topuria.

Dillon Danis#188 of 280 active Middleweight fighters · 1576 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Max Humphrey (rated 1500 at the time): +27.
Last 3 fights: 3 wins, 0 losses, +76 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #187 Ayissi Bessala, 0 ahead of #189 Laïd Zerhouni.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1482 Elo over the last 3 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

90%Arman Tsarukyan10%Dillon Danis

Model favoriteArman Tsarukyan

Elo baseline83% for Arman Tsarukyan

Matchup adjustment+7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Arman TsarukyanStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Arman Tsarukyan leads the full model at 90%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 7 points.

Current Elo ratings1848 · 1576Arman Tsarukyan leads by 272 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1737 · 1482Arman Tsarukyan faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 3 sampled fights).

Elo record depth26 · 3 fightsArman Tsarukyan has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Arman TsarukyanNow 1848 · #3 Lightweight

Wins by decision+4→ 1852

Loses by decision-20→ 1828

Dillon DanisNow 1576 · #188 Middleweight

Wins by decision+40→ 1616

Loses by decision-8→ 1568

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Arman TsarukyanvsDillon Danis

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Arman TsarukyanKO/TKO leads 42% of wins

Dillon Danissubmission leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Arman TsarukyanDillon Danis

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.78Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

50Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

1.77Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

55Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

3.25Takedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.68

3Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

75Takedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0.10Submission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

10Wins by knockout0

6Wins by submission2

8Wins by decision0

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision0

Arman Tsarukyan vs Dillon Danis is a scheduled Middleweight Wrestling fight on RAF 14 : TSARUKYAN VS DANIS. Arman Tsarukyan enters with a 24-3-0 record and Dillon Danis enters with a 2-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.