ZUFFA BOXING 12 : BILLAM-SMITH VS CLARKE

Lucas Roehrig vs Connal McDonald

Nov 7, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast55%Lucas Roehrig45%Connal McDonaldFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 7, 2026

DivisionCruiserweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCopper Box Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 2:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 7:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 8:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 6:00 AM
Your time

Lucas RoehrigLights Out |8-0-0Lucas Roehrig vs Connal McDonaldConnal McDonald5-1-0

Lucas RoehrigLights Out8-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

8-0-0Record5-1-0

23AgeTBD

TBDHeightTBD

-Reach-

200 lbsWeight200 lbs

CruiserweightWeight ClassCruiserweight

Connal McDonald5-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

The Elo matchup is close or still provisional. Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Lucas Roehrig and Connal McDonald across their careers →

Recent form

Lucas RoehrigNo counted pro MMA fights yet

No recent Elo history

Connal McDonaldNo counted pro MMA fights yet

No recent Elo history

Elo edge

Lucas RoehrigTBDTBD last move

Connal McDonaldTBDTBD last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

55%Lucas Roehrig45%Connal McDonald

Model favoriteLucas Roehrig

Elo baseline50% for Lucas Roehrig

Matchup adjustment+5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Lucas RoehrigStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model breaks Elo tie

Elo alone has this matchup at 50/50. The full matchup model separates the fighters and leans Lucas Roehrig at 55%.

Current Elo ratingsNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Recent opponent qualityNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Elo record depthNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Lucas RoehrigvsConnal McDonald

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Lucas RoehrigWin method split is limited

Connal McDonaldWin method split is limited

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Lucas RoehrigConnal McDonald

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

0Wins by knockout0

0Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Lucas Roehrig vs Connal McDonald is a scheduled Cruiserweight fight on ZUFFA BOXING 12 : BILLAM-SMITH VS CLARKE. Lucas Roehrig enters with a 8-0-0 record and Connal McDonald enters with a 5-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.