PFL MENA 11 : RIYADH

Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El Sisy

DateOct 2, 2026
StatusScheduled
VenueGlobal Theatre
BroadcastESPN 2
Start times & how to watch
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 2, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET)
Fri 10:00 AM
US West (PT)
Fri 7:00 AM
United Kingdom
Fri 3:00 PM
Central Europe
Fri 4:00 PM
Australia (Sydney)
Sat 12:00 AM
Mohammad FahmiSoulkeeper |6-1-0Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El SisyAhmed El Sisy8-2-0
iqMohammad FahmiSoulkeeper6-1-0Mohammad Fahmi
Elo1587Solid
3Y trend1529 → 1587
2023-09-30: 15292024-08-02: 15512025-05-09: 15822025-09-27: 16082025-12-05: 1587
iq

Fight Overview

Round3
Time5:00
6-1-0Record8-2-0
31AgeTBD
5'11"Height5'8"
72"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Lightweight SemifinalWeight ClassLightweight Semifinal
egAhmed El Sisy8-2-0egAhmed El Sisy
Elo1637Solid
3Y trend1591 → 1637
2023-06-23: 15912024-03-08: 16132024-05-25: 16332025-05-09: 16012025-12-05: 16192026-05-24: 1637
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Ahmed El Sisy owns a 50-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Mohammad Fahmi and Ahmed El Sisy across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Mohammad FahmiAhmed El Sisy
155016001650202420252026

Recent form

Mohammad FahmiL W W W W · +87 Elo last 5
LWWWW
Ahmed El SisyW W L W W · +45 Elo last 5
WWLWW

Elo edge

Mohammad Fahmi1587-21 last move
Ahmed El Sisy1637+18 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
71%Mohammad Fahmi29%Ahmed El Sisy
Model favoriteMohammad Fahmi
Elo baseline43% for Mohammad Fahmi
Matchup adjustment+28 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Mohammad FahmiStake

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Mohammad Fahmi is 71%, after Elo alone favored Ahmed El Sisy at 57%.

Current Elo ratings1587 · 1637Ahmed El Sisy leads by 50 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1566 · 1512Mohammad Fahmi faced the stronger recent schedule (5 vs 9 sampled fights).
Elo record depth5 · 9 fightsAhmed El Sisy has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Mohammad FahmivsAhmed El Sisy

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Mohammad Fahmisubmission leads 67% of wins
Ahmed El SisyKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

Mohsen MohammadseifiMohammad Fahmi: win · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Sep 27, 2025Ahmed El Sisy: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · May 9, 2025

Tale of the tape

Mohammad FahmiAhmed El Sisy

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available
UFC lightweight average : 3.84
Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available
UFC lightweight average : 46%
Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available
UFC lightweight average : 3.91
Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available
UFC lightweight average : 53%
Not availableTakedown averageNot available
UFC lightweight average : 1.69
Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available
UFC lightweight average : 30%
Not availableTakedown defenseNot available
UFC lightweight average : 59%
Not availableSubmission averageNot available
UFC lightweight average : 0.50
1Wins by knockout4
4Wins by submission0
1Wins by decision4
0Losses by knockout0
1Losses by submission0
0Losses by decision2

Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El Sisy is a scheduled Lightweight Semifinal fight on PFL MENA 11 : RIYADH. Mohammad Fahmi enters with a 6-1-0 record and Ahmed El Sisy enters with a 8-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El Sisy quick answers

When is Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El Sisy?

Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El Sisy is listed for PFL MENA 11 : RIYADH on Oct 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM EST.

What event is Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El Sisy on?

Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El Sisy is listed on PFL MENA 11 : RIYADH.

What are the records for Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El Sisy?

Mohammad Fahmi enters with a 6-1-0 record and Ahmed El Sisy enters with a 8-2-0 record.

What division is Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El Sisy?

Mohammad Fahmi vs Ahmed El Sisy is listed as a Lightweight Semifinal fight.

Full fight card

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