Mehdi Saadi vs Shadi Kabbani

DateOct 2, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight Semifinal

StatusScheduled

VenueGlobal Theatre

BroadcastESPN 2

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 2, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET): Fri 10:00 AM
US West (PT): Fri 7:00 AM
United Kingdom: Fri 3:00 PM
Central Europe: Fri 4:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 12:00 AM
Your time

Mehdi Saadi7-2-0Mehdi Saadi vs Shadi KabbaniShadi Kabbani5-0-0

Mehdi Saadi7-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

7-2-0Record5-0-0

33AgeTBD

5'7"Height5'6"

-Reach-

140 lbsWeight145 lbs

Featherweight SemifinalWeight ClassFeatherweight Semifinal

Shadi Kabbani5-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Shadi Kabbani owns a 11-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Mehdi Saadi and Shadi Kabbani across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Mehdi SaadiShadi Kabbani

Recent form

Mehdi SaadiW W L W W · +60 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Shadi KabbaniW W W W W · +121 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Mehdi Saadi1610+20 last move

Shadi Kabbani1621+23 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

62%Mehdi Saadi38%Shadi Kabbani

Model favoriteMehdi Saadi

Elo baseline48% for Mehdi Saadi

Matchup adjustment+14 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Mehdi SaadiStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Mehdi Saadi is 62%, after Elo alone favored Shadi Kabbani at 52%.

Current Elo ratings1610 · 1621Shadi Kabbani leads by 11 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1510 · 1539Shadi Kabbani faced the stronger recent schedule (9 vs 5 sampled fights).

Elo record depth9 · 5 fightsMehdi Saadi has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Mehdi SaadivsShadi Kabbani

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Mehdi Saadisubmission leads 57% of wins

Shadi Kabbanidecision leads 80% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Mehdi SaadiShadi Kabbani

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.97

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 47%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.85

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.56

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 55%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.62

2Wins by knockout1

4Wins by submission0

1Wins by decision4

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision0

Mehdi Saadi vs Shadi Kabbani is a scheduled Featherweight Semifinal fight on PFL MENA 11 : RIYADH. Mehdi Saadi enters with a 7-2-0 record and Shadi Kabbani enters with a 5-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.