Patrick Downey vs Magomed Magomedkerimov

Oct 23, 2026

Combat Edge model forecast28%Patrick Downey72%Magomed MagomedkerimovFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 23, 2026

DivisionCatchweight Wrestling

StatusScheduled

VenueBleauLive Theater

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 23, 2026.

US East (ET): Fri 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 11:00 AM
Your time

Patrick DowneyBunky |1-1-0Patrick Downey vs Magomed MagomedkerimovMagomed Magomedkerimov34-6-0

Patrick DowneyBunky1-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

1-1-0Record34-6-0

34Age36

6'0"Height6'1"

TBDReach73.00"

185 lbsWeight170 lbs

Catchweight WrestlingWeight ClassCatchweight Wrestling

Magomed Magomedkerimov34-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Magomed Magomedkerimov owns a 315-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Patrick Downey and Magomed Magomedkerimov across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Patrick DowneyMagomed Magomedkerimov

Recent form

Patrick DowneyL W · -4 Elo last 2

Magomed MagomedkerimovW W W W W · +38 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Patrick Downey1496-30 last move

Magomed Magomedkerimov1811+9 last move

Why they are ranked here

Patrick DowneyNot on the active ladder · 1496 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Keyes Nelson (rated 1463 at the time): +26.
Costliest loss: Lost to Christian Echols (rated 1512 at the time): -30.
Last 2 fights: 1 win, 1 loss, -4 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1412, not 1496: 84 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Magomed MagomedkerimovNot on the active ladder · 1811 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Dilano Taylor (rated 1669 at the time): +11.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ray Cooper III (rated 1727 at the time): -17.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +38 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1761, not 1811: 50 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

28%Patrick Downey72%Magomed Magomedkerimov

Model favoriteMagomed Magomedkerimov

Elo baseline86% for Magomed Magomedkerimov

Matchup adjustment-14 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Magomed MagomedkerimovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Magomed Magomedkerimov leads the full model at 72%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 14 points.

Current Elo ratings1496 · 1811Magomed Magomedkerimov leads by 315 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1488 · 1636Magomed Magomedkerimov faced the stronger recent schedule (2 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth2 · 39 fightsMagomed Magomedkerimov has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Patrick DowneyNow 1496

Wins by decision+41→ 1537

Loses by decision-7→ 1489

Magomed MagomedkerimovNow 1811

Wins by decision+3→ 1814

Loses by decision-21→ 1790

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Patrick DowneyvsMagomed Magomedkerimov

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Patrick Downeysubmission leads 100% of wins

Magomed MagomedkerimovKO/TKO leads 38% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Patrick DowneyMagomed Magomedkerimov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.94

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 48%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC middleweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 52%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 1.62

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC middleweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC middleweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC middleweight average : 0.68

0Wins by knockout13

1Wins by submission10

0Wins by decision11

1Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission3

0Losses by decision2

Patrick Downey vs Magomed Magomedkerimov is a scheduled Catchweight Wrestling fight on RAF 14 : TSARUKYAN VS DANIS. Patrick Downey enters with a 1-1-0 record and Magomed Magomedkerimov enters with a 34-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.