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OKTAGON 95 : KINCL VS HUMBURGER

Patrik Kincl vs Dominik Humburger

DateOct 17, 2026
DivisionMiddleweight
StatusScheduled
VenueMattoni Arena
BroadcastOKTAGON TV
Start times & how to watch
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on OKTAGON TV.

US East (ET)
Sat 10:00 AM
US West (PT)
Sat 7:00 AM
United Kingdom
Sat 3:00 PM
Central Europe
Sat 4:00 PM
Australia (Sydney)
Sun 1:00 AM
Patrik KinclInspektor |30-12-0Patrik Kincl vs Dominik HumburgerDominik Humburger12-3-0
czPatrik KinclInspektor30-12-0Patrik Kincl
Elo1712Good
3Y trend1724 → 1712
2024-03-02: 17242024-10-12: 17072025-06-14: 16922025-12-28: 17012026-07-11: 1712
cz

Fight Overview

RoundTBD
TimeTBD
30-12-0Record12-3-0
37Age30
5'11"Height6'1"
72"Reach-
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
MiddleweightWeight ClassMiddleweight
czDominik Humburger12-3-0czDominik Humburger
Elo1661Good
3Y trend1667 → 1661
2023-06-06: 16672023-09-16: 16362023-09-16: 16032024-02-17: 16232024-09-14: 16042025-02-21: 16182025-04-26: 16372025-08-09: 16592025-10-04: 16472026-04-25: 1661
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Patrik Kincl owns a 51-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Patrik Kincl and Dominik Humburger across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Patrik KinclDominik Humburger
160016501700202420252026

Recent form

Patrik KinclW W L L W · -1 Elo last 5
WWLLW
Dominik HumburgerW L W W W · +57 Elo last 5
WLWWW

Elo edge

Patrik Kincl1712+10 last move
Dominik Humburger1661+14 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
62%Patrik Kincl38%Dominik Humburger
Model favoritePatrik Kincl
Elo baseline57% for Patrik Kincl
Matchup adjustment+5 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Patrik KinclStake

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Patrik Kincl leads the full model at 62%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 5 points.

Current Elo ratings1712 · 1661Patrik Kincl leads by 51 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1663 · 1594Patrik Kincl faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth26 · 17 fightsPatrik Kincl has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.
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Stat advantages

Patrik KinclvsDominik Humburger

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Patrik KinclKO/TKO leads 43% of wins
Dominik HumburgerKO/TKO leads 75% of wins

Common opponents

Kerim EngizekPatrik Kincl: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Oct 12, 2024Dominik Humburger: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Oct 4, 2025
Samuel KristoficPatrik Kincl: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Feb 26, 2022Dominik Humburger: win · KO (Punch) · Apr 26, 2025

Tale of the tape

Patrik KinclDominik Humburger

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available
UFC middleweight average : 3.93
Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available
UFC middleweight average : 48%
Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available
UFC middleweight average : 3.81
Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available
UFC middleweight average : 52%
Not availableTakedown averageNot available
UFC middleweight average : 1.69
Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available
UFC middleweight average : 31%
Not availableTakedown defenseNot available
UFC middleweight average : 58%
Not availableSubmission averageNot available
UFC middleweight average : 0.69
13Wins by knockout9
8Wins by submission0
8Wins by decision3
2Losses by knockout0
2Losses by submission0
8Losses by decision3

Patrik Kincl vs Dominik Humburger is a scheduled Middleweight fight on OKTAGON 95 : KINCL VS HUMBURGER. Patrik Kincl enters with a 30-12-0 record and Dominik Humburger enters with a 12-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Patrik Kincl vs Dominik Humburger quick answers

When is Patrik Kincl vs Dominik Humburger?

Patrik Kincl vs Dominik Humburger is listed for OKTAGON 95 : KINCL VS HUMBURGER on Oct 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM EST.

What event is Patrik Kincl vs Dominik Humburger on?

Patrik Kincl vs Dominik Humburger is listed on OKTAGON 95 : KINCL VS HUMBURGER.

What are the records for Patrik Kincl vs Dominik Humburger?

Patrik Kincl enters with a 30-12-0 record and Dominik Humburger enters with a 12-3-0 record.

What division is Patrik Kincl vs Dominik Humburger?

Patrik Kincl vs Dominik Humburger is listed as a Middleweight fight.

Full fight card
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