Thad Jean vs Shamil Musaev

Jul 25, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast51%Thad Jean49%Shamil MusaevFull forecast

DateJul 25, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueCareFirst Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, July 25, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET): Sat 10:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 7:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 3:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 4:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 12:00 PM
Your time

Thad JeanSilverback |12-0-0Thad Jean vs Shamil MusaevShamil MusaevSilent Assassin |18-1-1

Thad JeanSilverback12-0-0

Fight Overview

Round5

Time5:00

12-0-0Record18-1-1

28Age32

6'2"Height5'10"

77"Reach71"

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Shamil MusaevSilent Assassin18-1-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Shamil Musaev owns a 4-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Thad Jean and Shamil Musaev across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Thad JeanShamil Musaev

Recent form

Thad JeanW W W W W · +107 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Shamil MusaevL W W W W · +55 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Thad Jean1778+15 last move

Shamil Musaev1782-18 last move

Why they are ranked here

Thad Jean#16 of 356 active Welterweight fighters · 1778 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mukhamed Berkhamov (rated 1746 at the time): +33.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +107 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #15 Abdoul Abdouraguimov, 1 ahead of #17 Jack Della Maddalena.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1635 Elo over the last 10 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Shamil Musaev#14 of 356 active Welterweight fighters · 1782 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Magomed Umalatov (rated 1795 at the time): +20.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ramazan Kuramagomedov (rated 1755 at the time): -18.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +55 Elo in total.
Next places: 6 points behind #13 Magomed Umalatov, 1 ahead of #15 Abdoul Abdouraguimov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.5-2026-07-01

51%Thad Jean49%Shamil Musaev

Model favoriteThad Jean

Elo baseline47% for Thad Jean

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Thad JeanStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Thad Jean is 51%, after Elo alone favored Shamil Musaev at 53%.

Current Elo ratings1778 · 1782Shamil Musaev leads by 4 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1635 · 1636Shamil Musaev faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth12 · 20 fightsShamil Musaev has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Thad JeanNow 1778 · #16 Welterweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1794

Loses by decision-16→ 1762

Shamil MusaevNow 1782 · #14 Welterweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1798

Loses by decision-16→ 1766

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Thad JeanvsShamil Musaev

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Thad JeanKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Shamil MusaevKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

Logan StorleyThad Jean: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Aug 1, 2025Shamil Musaev: win · KO (Punches) · Apr 19, 2024

Tale of the tape

Thad JeanShamil Musaev

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.84

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

6Wins by knockout12

1Wins by submission2

5Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Thad Jean vs Shamil Musaev is a scheduled Fight card fight on PFL WASHINGTON D.C. : JEAN VS RODRIGUEZ. Thad Jean enters with a 12-0-0 record and Shamil Musaev enters with a 18-1-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.