Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Ateba Gautier70%
Ozzy Diaz 30%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Ateba Gautier a 70% favorite over Ozzy Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Ateba Gautier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1700 to 1612, a 88-point edge.
Ozzy Diaz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ateba Gautier finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Ozzy Diaz 90%.
Ateba Gautier carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-2-0Record10-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'4"
81"Reach79"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamCalifornia Mixed Martial Arts· 1652 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Ateba Gautier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Ozzy Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1712
If they lose-20→ 1680
If they win+20→ 1632
If they lose-12→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1575 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ateba GautierOzzy Diaz