Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-0Record10-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'4"
81"Reach79"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamCalifornia Mixed Martial Arts· 1671 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Ateba Gautier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Ozzy Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1733
If they lose-20→ 1701
If they win+20→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1615
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ateba GautierOzzy Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ateba Gautier80%
Ozzy Diaz 20%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Ateba Gautier a 80% favorite over Ozzy Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Ateba Gautier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1721 to 1627, a 94-point edge.
Ateba Gautier enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Ateba Gautier finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Ozzy Diaz 90%.
Ateba Gautier carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.