Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Fernando82%
Billy Elekana 18%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Fernando a 82% favorite over Billy Elekana in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Lucas Fernando holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1653, a 60-point edge.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Billy Elekana finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Fernando 67%.
Lucas Fernando carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record15-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'3"
77"Reach81.5"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Lucas Fernando is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Billy Elekana carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1672
If they lose-13→ 1640
If they win+13→ 1726
If they lose-19→ 1694
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1582 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Billy ElekanaLucas Fernando