Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record14-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'3"
77"Reach81.5"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Lucas Fernando is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Billy Elekana carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1683
If they lose-15→ 1651
If they win+15→ 1707
If they lose-17→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Billy ElekanaLucas Fernando
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Fernando60%
Billy Elekana 40%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Fernando a 60% favorite over Billy Elekana in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Lucas Fernando holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1666, a 26-point edge.
Billy Elekana enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Billy Elekana finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Fernando 71%.
Lucas Fernando carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.