Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando

DateNov 7, 2026

DivisionLight Heavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Billy ElekanaSon of Susie |10-2-0Billy Elekana vs Lucas FernandoLucas Fernando14-3-0

Billy ElekanaSon of Susie10-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

10-2-0Record14-3-0

31Age29

6'2"Height6'3"

77"Reach81.5"

205 lbsWeight185 lbs

Light HeavyweightWeight ClassLight Heavyweight

Lucas Fernando14-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Lucas Fernando owns a 26-point Elo edge (good). Billy Elekana shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Billy Elekana and Lucas Fernando across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Billy ElekanaLucas Fernando

Recent form

Billy ElekanaW W W L W · +60 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Lucas FernandoW W W W W · +60 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Billy Elekana1666+15 last move

Lucas Fernando1692+19 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

34%Billy Elekana66%Lucas Fernando

Model favoriteLucas Fernando

Elo baseline54% for Lucas Fernando

Matchup adjustment+12 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Lucas FernandoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Lucas Fernando leads the full model at 66%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 12 points.

Current Elo ratings1666 · 1692Lucas Fernando leads by 26 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1560 · 1547Billy Elekana faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth12 · 17 fightsLucas Fernando has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesBilly Elekana 3 · 1 Lucas FernandoStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Billy Elekana.

Stat advantages

Billy ElekanavsLucas Fernando

Takedown accuracy

22%vs0%

Takedown average

0.85vs3

Sig. strikes landed per min

2.71vs1.87

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

3.59vs4.73

Finishing profile

Billy Elekanadecision leads 40% of wins

Lucas FernandoKO/TKO leads 57% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Billy ElekanaLucas Fernando

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.71Sig. strikes landed per min1.87

UFC light heavyweight average : 4.00

56Sig. strike accuracy52

UFC light heavyweight average : 50%

3.59Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.73

UFC light heavyweight average : 3.73

46Sig. strike defense39

UFC light heavyweight average : 51%

0.85Takedown average3

UFC light heavyweight average : 1.37

22Takedown accuracy0

UFC light heavyweight average : 27%

0Takedown defense0

UFC light heavyweight average : 58%

0.85Submission average1

UFC light heavyweight average : 0.59

3Wins by knockout8

3Wins by submission2

4Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision3

Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando is a scheduled Light Heavyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BONFIM VS BRADY. Billy Elekana enters with a 10-2-0 record and Lucas Fernando enters with a 14-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.