Carla Esparza vs Weili Zhang
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record26-4-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'1"Height5'4"
63"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team OyamaTeamFight Ready
What's at stake
Weili Zhang is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Carla Esparza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1679
If they lose-10→ 1647
If they win+7→ 1806
If they lose-17→ 1782
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaWeili Zhang
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Weili Zhang92%
Carla Esparza 8%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Weili Zhang a 92% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Weili Zhang holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1799 to 1657, a 142-point edge.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Weili Zhang 73%.
Carla Esparza and Weili Zhang share 3 common opponents: Rose Namajunas, Xiaonan Yan and Tatiana Suarez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.