Chris Duncan vs Drew Dober
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record29-15-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
71"Reach70″
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Chris Duncan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Drew Dober carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1738
If they lose-17→ 1706
If they win+13→ 1714
If they lose-11→ 1690
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1657 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1656 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanDrew Dober
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Duncan56%
Drew Dober 44%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Duncan a 56% favorite over Drew Dober in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Chris Duncan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1701, a 22-point edge.
Drew Dober enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Drew Dober 76%.
Chris Duncan and Drew Dober share 3 common opponents: Renato Moicano, Terrance McKinney and Manuel Torres.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.