Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan

Nov 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast34%Drew Dober66%Chris DuncanFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMadison Square Garden

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Drew Dober29-15-0Drew Dober vs Chris DuncanChris DuncanThe Problem |15-3-0

Drew Dober29-15-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

29-15-0Record15-3-0

38Age33

5'8"Height6'0"

70″Reach71"

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Chris DuncanThe Problem15-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Chris Duncan owns a 23-point Elo edge (good). Chris Duncan shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Drew Dober and Chris Duncan across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Drew DoberChris Duncan

Recent form

Drew DoberW W L L L · -21 Elo last 5

WWLLL

Chris DuncanL W W W W · +54 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Drew Dober1701+12 last move

Chris Duncan1724-20 last move

Why they are ranked here

Drew Dober#78 of 459 active Lightweight fighters · 1701 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ricky Glenn (rated 1688 at the time): +14.
Costliest loss: Lost to Matt Frevola (rated 1666 at the time): -18.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -21 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #77 Kevin Pease, 2 ahead of #79 Alfie Davis.

Chris Duncan#47 of 459 active Lightweight fighters · 1724 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Charlie Campbell (rated 1616 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Renato Moicano (rated 1728 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +54 Elo in total.
Next places: 4 points behind #46 Renato Moicano, 1 ahead of #48 Ali Suleymanov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

34%Drew Dober66%Chris Duncan

Model favoriteChris Duncan

Elo baseline53% for Chris Duncan

Matchup adjustment+13 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Chris DuncanStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Chris Duncan leads the full model at 66%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 13 points.

Current Elo ratings1701 · 1724Chris Duncan leads by 23 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1657 · 1658Chris Duncan faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth35 · 18 fightsDrew Dober has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesDrew Dober 0 · 4 Chris DuncanStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Chris Duncan.

What's at stake

Drew DoberNow 1701 · #78 Lightweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1714

Loses by decision-11→ 1690

Chris DuncanNow 1724 · #47 Lightweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1739

Loses by decision-17→ 1707

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Drew DobervsChris Duncan

Takedown average

0.61vs2.92

Submission average

0.07vs0.58

Sig. strike accuracy

41%vs46%

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.48vs4.83

Finishing profile

Drew DoberKO/TKO leads 59% of wins

Chris DuncanKO/TKO leads 47% of wins

Common opponents

Renato MoicanoDrew Dober: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Feb 3, 2024Chris Duncan: loss · Submission (Rear naked choke) · Apr 4, 2026

Terrance McKinney Drew Dober: win · TKO (knee and punches) · Mar 12, 2022 Chris Duncan: win · Submission (Anaconda Choke) · Dec 6, 2025

Manuel Torres Drew Dober: loss · TKO (punches) · Mar 29, 2025 Chris Duncan: loss · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Feb 24, 2024

Tale of the tape

Drew DoberChris Duncan

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.48Sig. strikes landed per min4.83

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

41Sig. strike accuracy46

UFC lightweight average : 46%

4.33Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.57

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

53Sig. strike defense51

UFC lightweight average : 53%

0.61Takedown average2.92

UFC lightweight average : 1.67

13Takedown accuracy14

UFC lightweight average : 28%

58Takedown defense56

UFC lightweight average : 58%

0.07Submission average0.58

UFC lightweight average : 0.55

17Wins by knockout7

5Wins by submission4

7Wins by decision4

4Losses by knockout1

4Losses by submission2

7Losses by decision0

Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKIT. Drew Dober enters with a 29-15-0 record and Chris Duncan enters with a 15-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.