Combat Edge Intelligence

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

11-2-0Record14-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
74"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tobet Top TeamTeamChute Boxe Monstro

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Diyar NurgozhayNow 1683
If they win+16→ 1699
If they lose-16→ 1667
Rafael TobiasNow 1675
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1561 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
3.45
59%
Strike accuracy
31%
2.81
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.98
61%
Strike defense
40%
1.37
Takedown avg.
3.98
50%
Takedown accuracy
100%
80%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
3.98

Trajectory

Diyar NurgozhayRafael Tobias
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (55%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
2 (18%)
Submission
6 (43%)
3 (27%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Tobias51%
Diyar Nurgozhay 49%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Tobias a 51% favorite over Diyar Nurgozhay in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Diyar Nurgozhay's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1675), separated by just 8 points.

Diyar Nurgozhay finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.