Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record14-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
74"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tobet Top TeamTeamChute Boxe Monstro
What's at stake
Diyar Nurgozhay is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Rafael Tobias carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1713
If they lose-18→ 1681
If they win+18→ 1674
If they lose-14→ 1642
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Diyar NurgozhayRafael Tobias
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diyar Nurgozhay68%
Rafael Tobias 32%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Diyar Nurgozhay a 68% favorite over Rafael Tobias in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Diyar Nurgozhay holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1656, a 43-point edge.
Diyar Nurgozhay enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Rafael Tobias enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Diyar Nurgozhay finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.