Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias

Mar 7, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

DateMar 7, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueT-MOBILE ARENA

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, March 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Diyar Nurgozhay12-2-0Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael TobiasRafael TobiasBipolar |14-3-0

Diyar Nurgozhay12-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

12-2-0Record14-3-0

29Age23

6'2"Height6'2"

74"Reach74"

205 lbsWeight205 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Rafael TobiasBipolar14-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Diyar Nurgozhay owns a 49-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Diyar Nurgozhay and Rafael Tobias across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Diyar NurgozhayRafael Tobias

Recent form

Diyar NurgozhayW W L L W · +9 Elo last 5

WWLLW

Rafael TobiasL L W W W · -5 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Elo edge

Diyar Nurgozhay1706+17 last move

Rafael Tobias1657-19 last move

Why they are ranked here

Diyar Nurgozhay#30 of 179 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1706 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Magomed Magomedov (rated 1694 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Brendson Ribeiro (rated 1575 at the time): -27.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +9 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #29 Roman Dolidze, 0 ahead of #31 Luis Hernandez.

Rafael Tobias#56 of 179 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1657 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Luis Oliveira (rated 1476 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Miguel Porto (rated 1473 at the time): -44.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, -5 Elo in total.
Next places: 6 points behind #55 Paul Craig, 0 ahead of #57 Tomasz Narkun.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Diyar NurgozhayNow 1706 · #30 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1720

Loses by decision-18→ 1688

Rafael TobiasNow 1657 · #56 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1675

Loses by decision-14→ 1643

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Diyar NurgozhayvsRafael Tobias

Submission average

0vs1.60

Takedown accuracy

50%vs22%

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

2.81vs5.81

Takedown average

1.37vs2.40

Finishing profile

Diyar NurgozhayKO/TKO leads 58% of wins

Rafael Tobiassubmission leads 43% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Diyar NurgozhayRafael Tobias

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.52Sig. strikes landed per min2.77

UFC light heavyweight average : 4.00

59Sig. strike accuracy36

UFC light heavyweight average : 50%

2.81Sig. strikes absorbed per min5.81

UFC light heavyweight average : 3.73

61Sig. strike defense35

UFC light heavyweight average : 51%

1.37Takedown average2.40

UFC light heavyweight average : 1.37

50Takedown accuracy22

UFC light heavyweight average : 26%

80Takedown defense100

UFC light heavyweight average : 58%

0Submission average1.60

UFC light heavyweight average : 0.59

7Wins by knockout5

2Wins by submission6

3Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout2

2Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC 326 : HOLLOWAY VS OLIVEIRA 2. Diyar Nurgozhay enters with a 12-2-0 record and Rafael Tobias enters with a 14-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.