UFC 326 : HOLLOWAY VS OLIVEIRA 2

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias

DateMar 7, 2026
DivisionFight card
StatusScheduled
VenueT-MOBILE ARENA
BroadcastPARAMOUNT+
Start times & how to watch
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, March 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET)
Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT)
Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom
Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe
Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney)
Sun 1:00 PM
Diyar Nurgozhay12-2-0Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael TobiasRafael TobiasBipolar |14-3-0
kzDiyar Nurgozhay12-2-0Diyar Nurgozhay
Elo1699Good
3Y trend1697 → 1699
2024-05-18: 16972024-10-01: 17112025-03-15: 16852025-08-23: 16652026-03-07: 16822026-08-08: 1699
kz

Fight Overview

Round3
Time5:00
12-2-0Record14-3-0
29Age23
6'2"Height6'2"
74"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Fight cardWeight ClassFight card
brRafael TobiasBipolar14-3-0brRafael Tobias
Elo1656Good
3Y trend1643 → 1656
2023-12-09: 16432024-04-06: 16552024-04-21: 16632024-08-01: 16742025-04-12: 16832025-09-23: 16932026-03-07: 16752026-08-15: 1656
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Diyar Nurgozhay owns a 43-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Diyar Nurgozhay and Rafael Tobias across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Diyar NurgozhayRafael Tobias
16501700202420252026

Recent form

Diyar NurgozhayW W L L W · +2 Elo last 5
WWLLW
Rafael TobiasL L W W W · -7 Elo last 5
LLWWW

Elo edge

Diyar Nurgozhay1699+17 last move
Rafael Tobias1656-20 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Stat advantages

Diyar NurgozhayvsRafael Tobias
Submission average
0vs1.60
Takedown accuracy
50%vs22%
Sig. strikes absorbed per min
2.81vs5.81
Takedown average
1.37vs2.40

Finishing profile

Diyar NurgozhayKO/TKO leads 58% of wins
Rafael Tobiassubmission leads 43% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Diyar NurgozhayRafael Tobias

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.52Sig. strikes landed per min2.77
UFC light heavyweight average : 4.00
59Sig. strike accuracy36
UFC light heavyweight average : 50%
2.81Sig. strikes absorbed per min5.81
UFC light heavyweight average : 3.74
61Sig. strike defense35
UFC light heavyweight average : 51%
1.37Takedown average2.40
UFC light heavyweight average : 1.35
50Takedown accuracy22
UFC light heavyweight average : 28%
80Takedown defense100
UFC light heavyweight average : 57%
0Submission average1.60
UFC light heavyweight average : 0.58
7Wins by knockout5
2Wins by submission6
3Wins by decision3
0Losses by knockout2
2Losses by submission0
0Losses by decision1

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC 326 : HOLLOWAY VS OLIVEIRA 2. Diyar Nurgozhay enters with a 12-2-0 record and Rafael Tobias enters with a 14-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias quick answers

When is Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias?

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias is listed for UFC 326 : HOLLOWAY VS OLIVEIRA 2 on Mar 7, 2026 at 9:00 PM EST.

What event is Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias on?

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias is listed on UFC 326 : HOLLOWAY VS OLIVEIRA 2.

What are the records for Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias?

Diyar Nurgozhay enters with a 12-2-0 record and Rafael Tobias enters with a 14-3-0 record.

What division is Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias?

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Rafael Tobias is listed as a Fight card fight.

Full fight card

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