Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr.
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-0-0Record11-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Next Generation MMA LiverpoolTeam4oz. Fight Club
What's at stake
Luke Riley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Michael Aswell Jr. carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1765
If they lose-21→ 1733
If they win+21→ 1651
If they lose-11→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luke RileyMichael Aswell Jr.
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Riley92%
Michael Aswell Jr. 8%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Riley a 92% favorite over Michael Aswell Jr. in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Luke Riley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1630, a 124-point edge.
Luke Riley enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Michael Aswell Jr. enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luke Riley finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Michael Aswell Jr. 55%.
Luke Riley and Michael Aswell Jr. share 1 common opponent: Bogdan Grad.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.