Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
21-8-1Record12-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'2"
72″Reach73"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Tom Nolan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Renato Moicano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1741
If they lose-11→ 1717
If they win+15→ 1762
If they lose-17→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1742 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1631 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Renato MoicanoTom Nolan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Nolan77%
Renato Moicano 23%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Nolan a 77% favorite over Renato Moicano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Tom Nolan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1747 to 1728, a 19-point edge.
Tom Nolan enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Renato Moicano finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.