Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-7-1Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'2"
72″Reach73"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Renato Moicano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tom Nolan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1754
If they lose-13→ 1730
If they win+17→ 1743
If they lose-15→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1736 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Renato MoicanoTom Nolan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Renato Moicano57%
Tom Nolan 43%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Renato Moicano a 57% favorite over Tom Nolan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Renato Moicano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1726, a 17-point edge.
Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Renato Moicano finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 55%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.