Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan

DateOct 31, 2026

DivisionLIGHTWEIGHT BOUT

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Renato MoicanoMoicano |21-7-1Renato Moicano vs Tom NolanTom NolanBig Train |11-1-0

Renato MoicanoMoicano21-7-1

Fight Overview

Round5

Time5:00

21-7-1Record11-1-0

37Age26

5'11"Height6'2"

72″Reach73"

156 lbsWeight155 lbs

LIGHTWEIGHT BOUTWeight ClassLIGHTWEIGHT BOUT

Tom NolanBig Train11-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Renato Moicano owns a 17-point Elo edge (good). Tom Nolan shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Renato MoicanoTom Nolan

Recent form

Renato MoicanoW L L W W · +27 Elo last 5

WLLWW

Tom NolanW W W W W · +110 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Renato Moicano1743+15 last move

Tom Nolan1726+17 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

30%Renato Moicano70%Tom Nolan

Model favoriteTom Nolan

Elo baseline48% for Tom Nolan

Matchup adjustment+22 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Tom NolanStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Tom Nolan is 70%, after Elo alone favored Renato Moicano at 52%.

Current Elo ratings1743 · 1726Renato Moicano leads by 17 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1736 · 1606Renato Moicano faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth26 · 12 fightsRenato Moicano has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesRenato Moicano 1 · 3 Tom NolanStrongest available gap: Submission average toward Tom Nolan.

Stat advantages

Renato MoicanovsTom Nolan

Submission average

0.56vs1.86

Takedown average

1.68vs0.74

Takedown accuracy

12%vs22%

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.10vs5.87

Finishing profile

Renato Moicanosubmission leads 52% of wins

Tom NolanKO/TKO leads 45% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Renato MoicanoTom Nolan

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.10Sig. strikes landed per min5.87

UFC lightweight average : 3.84

49Sig. strike accuracy46

UFC lightweight average : 46%

3.55Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.73

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

60Sig. strike defense48

UFC lightweight average : 53%

1.68Takedown average0.74

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

12Takedown accuracy22

UFC lightweight average : 30%

64Takedown defense71

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0.56Submission average1.86

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

2Wins by knockout5

11Wins by submission1

8Wins by decision5

3Losses by knockout1

2Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision0

Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan is a scheduled LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MOICANO VS NOLAN. Renato Moicano enters with a 21-7-1 record and Tom Nolan enters with a 11-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.