Dairou Mobalbaye vs Jonatas Paulo

DateSep 25, 2026

DivisionAmateur Catchweight

StatusScheduled

VenueZénith Toulouse Métropole

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, September 25, 2026.

US East (ET): Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 3:00 AM
Your time

Dairou Mobalbaye0-0-0Dairou Mobalbaye vs Jonatas PauloJonatas Paulo0-0-0

Dairou Mobalbaye0-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

0-0-0Record0-0-0

TBDAgeTBD

TBDHeightTBD

TBDReachTBD

155 lbsWeight170 lbs

Amateur CatchweightWeight ClassAmateur Catchweight

Jonatas Paulo0-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

The Elo matchup is close or still provisional. Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Dairou Mobalbaye and Jonatas Paulo across their careers →

Recent form

Dairou MobalbayeNo counted pro MMA fights yet

No recent Elo history

Jonatas PauloNo counted pro MMA fights yet

No recent Elo history

Elo edge

Dairou MobalbayeTBDTBD last move

Jonatas PauloTBDTBD last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

49%Dairou Mobalbaye51%Jonatas Paulo

Model favoriteJonatas Paulo

Elo baseline50% for Jonatas Paulo

Matchup adjustment+1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jonatas PauloStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model breaks Elo tie

Elo alone has this matchup at 50/50. The full matchup model separates the fighters and leans Jonatas Paulo at 51%.

Current Elo ratingsNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Recent opponent qualityNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Elo record depthNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Dairou MobalbayevsJonatas Paulo

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Dairou MobalbayeNo tracked pro wins

Jonatas PauloNo tracked pro wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Dairou MobalbayeJonatas Paulo

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

0Wins by knockout0

0Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Dairou Mobalbaye vs Jonatas Paulo is a scheduled Amateur Catchweight fight on HEXAGONE MMA 47 : LAPILUS VS BIVOL. Dairou Mobalbaye enters with a 0-0-0 record and Jonatas Paulo enters with a 0-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.